The 18X program is broken!

The 18X program isn’t broken at all…I just wanted to get your attention.

But, the 18X program isn’t perfect either. Follow along.

We get lots of questions from guys asking what to do…take an 18X contract and become a SMU Sniper Dog Handler or go to medical school and then commission and become a SMU commander and then an Astronaut (if you know, you know). Six of one, half dozen of the other, right?

The 18X program is designed to get guys right off the street into Group; SF is historically undermanned holding steady at ~80% manning. I’ve never once seen a 12-man ODA outside of a CRF. So 18X makes sense. You have to be a little older to qualify for X because one of the hallmarks of SF is a more mature (and thus capable) force. In 2000 the average age on an ODA was 34 years with 12 years time in service. Those numbers today are 27 and 8.

When we revived the 18X program amidst the GWOT surge it was originally intended to fill about 30% of the force. The thinking was that the force could absorb 30% and still maintain the maturity (read capability) level. But the actual number now is ~60%. That presents some problems.

This is a good time to talk about operational culture. SF follows a mantra called ‘Big Boy Rules’. Nobody rides you about haircuts or uniforms or unit PT, but the expectation is that you will keep yourself well-groomed, out of the spotlight, and in shape. You’re not allowed to have a man bun, roll into Group HQ in cutoff OCPs, with a beer gut. With ‘Big Boy Rules’ come big boy consequences. As a result, we’ve created a culture of innovation, competence, and accountability. SF is hyper-competitive, results oriented, and practical. If you don’t meet the standards then you’ll hear about it. Guys will bust your balls at first, but keep fucking up and you’ll find your shit in the hallway with a new job assignment pretty quick.

So, because we value and rely on competence so much it hurts when it’s not there. An ODA is a little self-sustaining unit and it requires everybody to pull their own weight and then some. I’ve told this story before, but something as simple as a flat range requires multiple moving pieces. You’ve got to forecast, request, and draw ammo, the range itself, vehicles, medical coverage, training and risk assessments, weapons, etc. It’s a complex little exercise with all sorts of ancillary tasks, and a flat range is about as simple a thing as an ODA can do. I had a Team Sergeant explain to me once how he had an 18X heavy team and when he was prepping a range day he tasked a guy to go get a vehicle and the guy had no idea how to dispatch, let alone PMCS, a HMMWV. So that task turned into a training event where an experienced guy had to stop what he was doing and train the new guy how to do that thing. Sand in the gears. Take that minor thing and multiply that by 1000 tasks and then do it in combat conditions in an austere non-permissive environment and you see where this might be a challenge. And don’t forget that you’re SF, but you’re still in the Army and if you want to see some pucker factor then go ahead and fuck up a sensitive item inventory, or lose track of the controlled meds, or have a guy roll through a vehicle inspection at the gate with some pyro that wasn’t accounted for. Big boy consequences.

Now, it’s not the 18Xs fault that he doesn’t have these experiences. He’s just following the program. But even a REMF E4 from a low-speed unit knows how to dispatch a vehicle and how to do a layout and how a key box works. Get too many guys who don’t know enough and you start to accept risk where you shouldn’t. Risk to force and risk to mission.

So, what to do? Isn’t there a way to get guys schooled up? Can’t you run some sort of indoc where you teach new guys these skills? Maybe. But that’s one more thing that you’ve got to plan, resource, and execute that you don’t have time or resources for. And what stuff do you not do so you can do this stuff? Resources aren’t infinite. Can you reduce the number of Xs to say 40%? Sure, but how many ODAs do you want to ghost? What missions do you want to decline? What about just tell Team Sergeants to ‘make it happen!’ Of course, all high-performing organizations employ the ‘fuck it’ model of management, right? There’s no perfect answer. I have ideas, but you have to subscribe to my Only Fans to hear them.

And there’s still this little thing called SFAS that tends to stifle lots of ‘good ideas’. The selection rates are roughly 50% for officers and NG, 40% for 18X, and 25% for ADE (Active Duty Enlisted) for an overall rate of ~36%. So you’d be inclined to think that your best bet to get selected is to go X (because you know you’re not occifer material…those dudes are ELITE). As an X you get the benefit of a guaranteed slot, you get SFPC, and you get to do it all with a little cohort of your buddies. Strength in numbers.

But the reality is a little more nuanced. Officers select higher because they are, generally speaking, better prepared. You can’t commission until 21 and you need at least 3 years before you can go to SFAS so your bare minimum age is 24, likely older. Officer culture, especially among junior officers, demands physical fitness. Every commissioning source requires extensive land nav training. In other words, officers already go through a pretty extensive prep.

National Guard guys have the benefit of SFRE and likely some sort of unit sponsorship or even individual mentorship. That level of accountability and preparation creates better results.

ADE have to contend with all of the challenges of dealing with day to day unit life with all of the distractions so it’s no surprise that they have the lowest success rates, right?

Except the 18X numbers are cooked (the numbers are cooked, but nobody is cooking them - nothing nefarious here).

There’s no real way to track the actual success rates as the Xs are dependent on and inculcated into other systems that distort the real numbers, but a recent cohort broke down as such: 50 guys started OSUT. About 20 of those guys didn’t keep their X contract through OSUT…injury, PT failure, etc. So 30 guys go on to Airborne, but 5 don’t make it…injury, PT, etc. So now 25 go to SFPC but another 5 drop out…fail land nav, fail PT, get injured, quit, etc. So 20 go to SFAS. Of those 20, 8 get selected. So the number looks like 40%…8 of 20. Not bad. But in reality it’s 8 of 50…only 16%. Worse than ADE. And you had every possible advantage. And now you’re needs of the Army. In all likelihood you’ll end up as an 11B, likely in an Airborne unit. But no guarantee on your guaranteed contract. Ouch.

Do with this information what you will. Head on over NASA or whatever. We need good guys in SF…there is way more work than guys who can do it. But 18X might not be the best route. 18X is definitely the most direct route. 18A is most successful, but requires a ton of commitment. NG is a good option too, but you’re in the Guard. Oof. Ultimately, if you want to be a Green Beret you’ll figure out a way to get here. Choose your own route, but choose wisely.

For the record, every 18X (with a few years of team time) that I’ve ever met was just as switched on as a traditional one. No difference. This isn’t a referendum on 18Xs, just planning considerations.